* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952022 09/14/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 27 31 37 46 55 62 59 63 66 67 67 65 64 66 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 27 31 37 46 55 62 59 40 32 28 27 27 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 24 26 27 27 25 25 26 26 27 27 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 9 11 16 13 19 19 12 7 11 12 12 18 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 1 0 2 1 3 2 6 3 0 8 3 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 41 38 41 58 40 56 37 70 68 107 360 47 41 5 4 7 359 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.9 30.0 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 149 148 147 148 150 150 149 146 148 148 148 155 167 164 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 5 4 6 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 82 85 85 83 88 86 88 85 87 86 88 87 85 81 74 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 8 8 9 9 11 12 11 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 49 55 57 55 47 41 38 21 23 23 66 74 98 105 100 78 200 MB DIV 101 104 110 117 124 113 146 127 130 130 124 102 80 49 37 17 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 1 0 -1 0 0 6 -1 0 -2 -10 -5 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 337 331 329 314 301 268 230 182 111 16 -62 -87 -122 -156 -52 98 53 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.3 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.5 95.6 95.8 96.0 96.4 96.8 97.2 97.5 97.7 98.2 99.0 100.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 9 13 14 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 12 12 12 10 17 29 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. 43. 46. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 5. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 26. 35. 42. 39. 43. 46. 47. 47. 45. 44. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.8 95.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952022 INVEST 09/14/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 30.1% 16.5% 9.8% 2.6% 32.8% 70.1% 44.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 1.4% Consensus: 1.2% 10.7% 5.9% 3.4% 0.9% 11.0% 23.5% 15.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952022 INVEST 09/14/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##