* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952022 07/09/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 42 48 52 58 61 61 56 52 45 38 31 23 16 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 42 48 52 58 61 61 56 52 45 38 31 23 16 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 37 37 35 35 34 31 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 6 5 5 2 4 2 8 16 21 21 25 32 29 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 0 5 2 1 -3 0 -1 -1 1 6 8 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 329 318 263 279 276 252 215 151 234 252 266 250 236 238 247 233 223 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.1 28.4 28.0 28.2 27.1 26.6 25.8 24.8 24.4 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.6 23.7 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 147 150 146 148 136 131 123 112 108 109 104 102 98 99 102 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 72 74 74 73 70 66 64 61 58 54 50 46 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 11 12 14 16 18 17 17 15 13 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -3 -4 -13 -21 -5 -3 0 -10 1 2 3 11 14 -1 -11 -26 200 MB DIV 16 8 1 23 3 43 47 51 47 56 34 47 25 35 0 44 32 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 0 2 6 5 3 1 0 0 10 7 13 16 15 13 LAND (KM) 892 988 1020 1078 1150 1339 1514 1716 1897 2077 2258 1971 1697 1446 1255 1081 952 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.0 112.5 113.9 115.3 116.8 119.9 122.8 125.6 128.3 130.9 133.6 136.2 138.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 15 15 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 18 30 14 15 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 22. 21. 19. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 2. -1. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 13. 12. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 18. 22. 28. 31. 31. 26. 22. 15. 8. 1. -7. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 111.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952022 INVEST 07/09/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 23.7% 19.7% 18.3% 0.0% 18.4% 16.6% 15.2% Logistic: 37.5% 66.7% 50.2% 39.2% 13.9% 42.1% 11.6% 12.7% Bayesian: 1.8% 39.4% 4.0% 1.5% 1.0% 13.7% 3.5% 0.0% Consensus: 16.6% 43.3% 24.6% 19.7% 5.0% 24.8% 10.6% 9.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952022 INVEST 07/09/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##