* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952022 07/09/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 39 47 54 56 56 52 48 42 37 31 26 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 39 47 54 56 56 52 48 42 37 31 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 5 6 4 3 9 7 6 9 13 19 24 27 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 1 4 3 -4 -3 -1 2 3 4 4 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 314 304 301 277 274 273 194 168 174 254 272 258 243 237 244 259 261 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.0 28.0 28.2 27.9 27.0 26.6 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.8 25.3 25.5 24.6 24.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 146 146 148 145 136 131 123 116 112 112 117 118 108 103 103 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 77 75 75 74 74 74 73 71 68 66 63 61 56 53 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 8 9 8 10 12 13 16 18 18 17 16 15 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -9 -5 -12 -20 -19 -3 -6 0 -9 2 -2 0 -6 2 -10 -11 200 MB DIV 30 27 19 1 29 10 34 50 60 31 16 35 30 3 4 7 -4 700-850 TADV -1 1 3 3 2 5 5 6 1 0 -1 2 6 10 13 10 10 LAND (KM) 823 908 1000 1027 1097 1291 1470 1687 1900 2090 2304 2034 1777 1546 1341 1170 1025 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.7 111.3 112.8 114.3 115.8 119.0 122.1 125.0 127.9 130.6 133.3 135.9 138.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 15 15 16 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 13 20 23 17 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 25. 27. 28. 27. 26. 25. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 16. 14. 12. 9. 7. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 14. 22. 29. 31. 31. 27. 23. 17. 12. 6. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 109.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952022 INVEST 07/09/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.71 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 36.9% 21.1% 14.4% 3.2% 21.5% 3.1% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 19.5% 12.3% 4.8% 1.1% 12.4% 5.8% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952022 INVEST 07/09/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##