* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952022 07/08/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 42 49 58 63 66 67 66 62 57 52 45 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 42 49 58 63 66 67 66 62 57 52 45 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 35 37 37 36 33 28 23 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 6 2 3 3 6 3 2 8 14 15 18 23 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 1 1 0 3 0 -1 4 0 0 3 2 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 334 313 321 320 311 198 170 168 202 250 274 270 264 242 239 234 282 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.6 28.4 28.4 27.9 28.1 27.5 26.8 26.3 25.3 25.0 25.2 25.5 24.7 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 148 152 150 150 145 147 140 133 128 118 114 117 120 111 111 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 77 75 74 73 72 70 68 66 62 61 57 52 49 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 12 14 16 17 17 16 15 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -20 -17 -3 0 -8 -10 2 1 -2 -7 -7 -9 -3 -5 -3 -15 200 MB DIV 32 44 33 27 16 37 -12 11 30 40 44 49 7 0 -22 -28 -28 700-850 TADV 6 1 -3 -1 5 3 7 5 5 1 0 0 0 2 4 5 7 LAND (KM) 718 776 843 923 1013 1131 1298 1483 1661 1845 2030 2216 2167 1855 1552 1260 978 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.5 108.1 109.6 111.1 112.4 115.2 118.1 120.9 123.7 126.3 129.0 131.8 134.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 14 13 14 14 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 17 21 15 31 12 13 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 14. 13. 11. 8. 7. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 17. 24. 33. 38. 41. 42. 41. 37. 32. 27. 20. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 106.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952022 INVEST 07/08/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.70 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.5% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 12.2% 55.3% 35.1% 25.0% 8.1% 39.8% 25.2% 37.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 18.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 6.7% 4.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 31.8% 18.4% 8.5% 2.8% 21.3% 15.1% 12.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952022 INVEST 07/08/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##