* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952022 07/08/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 43 47 54 59 61 64 65 64 60 55 48 41 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 43 47 54 59 61 64 65 64 60 55 48 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 33 35 35 36 35 36 36 34 30 25 19 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 9 5 4 3 4 4 3 6 12 15 17 22 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 1 1 -3 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 3 1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 333 326 322 331 324 195 217 186 229 261 273 263 271 242 224 213 231 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.3 28.5 28.1 28.3 28.6 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.2 25.2 24.7 25.1 25.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 153 149 151 147 149 152 145 140 135 127 116 111 115 115 104 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -53.8 -54.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 78 75 75 74 77 76 74 74 72 69 67 65 61 58 53 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 9 8 10 12 13 15 16 17 17 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -13 -23 -18 -6 -1 -11 0 -2 -3 -12 -15 -20 -19 -11 -9 -17 200 MB DIV 50 26 46 26 12 34 17 5 32 67 45 40 40 16 0 6 10 700-850 TADV 1 5 0 -4 0 5 4 4 2 0 0 2 -2 3 7 11 8 LAND (KM) 676 703 756 809 886 1069 1210 1408 1602 1785 1974 2128 2305 2086 1809 1549 1317 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.8 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 106.4 107.8 109.2 110.6 113.3 116.3 119.4 122.3 125.0 127.5 130.1 132.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 14 14 14 14 15 15 14 12 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 19 18 17 22 14 21 21 12 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 3. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 11. 9. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 18. 22. 29. 34. 36. 39. 40. 39. 35. 30. 23. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 104.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952022 INVEST 07/08/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.58 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.1% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 16.1% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 43.4% 25.6% 16.4% 5.5% 33.2% 35.1% 50.5% Bayesian: 1.6% 40.3% 7.6% 1.8% 0.5% 18.8% 19.0% 0.3% Consensus: 3.6% 34.9% 16.9% 6.1% 2.0% 23.1% 23.4% 16.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952022 INVEST 07/08/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##