* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952022 07/07/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 28 36 43 50 54 58 61 62 60 57 49 42 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 28 36 43 50 54 58 61 62 60 57 49 42 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 24 25 24 23 20 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 18 16 10 8 7 4 7 12 9 13 10 10 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 2 -2 0 0 -3 0 3 0 5 SHEAR DIR 14 9 7 6 7 10 11 11 360 310 294 295 292 297 240 219 211 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.6 26.3 25.7 24.1 23.8 23.1 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 150 148 145 146 149 148 143 141 127 121 105 101 93 86 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 79 79 79 80 79 76 75 72 68 64 59 57 52 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 6 8 8 9 10 13 14 15 16 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -36 -38 -31 -20 -21 -6 -16 -5 4 1 -9 -18 -15 -13 -1 -5 200 MB DIV 18 28 32 30 40 52 31 6 -11 4 41 52 40 23 24 10 -5 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -3 1 2 0 3 4 1 0 0 1 0 3 4 8 LAND (KM) 689 725 772 814 842 896 970 1086 1177 1240 1354 1437 1579 1696 1820 1934 2046 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.9 12.5 13.3 14.0 14.8 15.8 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.6 100.9 102.2 103.6 104.9 107.3 109.7 112.2 114.7 117.1 119.7 122.2 124.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 21 23 23 17 17 22 18 11 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37. 36. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 8. 16. 23. 30. 34. 38. 41. 42. 40. 37. 29. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 99.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952022 INVEST 07/07/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 7.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 2.8% 21.5% 59.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 0.3% 3.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 7.2% 20.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952022 INVEST 07/07/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##