* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932022 09/03/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 53 62 75 85 95 104 109 106 96 84 79 76 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 53 62 75 85 95 104 109 106 96 54 52 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 39 46 55 66 77 90 95 90 75 45 43 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 15 12 12 13 12 10 10 2 4 4 7 14 14 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 0 0 2 0 2 1 0 -2 0 3 7 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 25 23 25 38 32 29 12 35 327 316 12 341 293 266 283 280 266 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.7 29.4 29.2 30.2 29.3 28.6 27.5 26.1 27.5 30.8 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 160 163 161 159 162 159 157 168 159 151 139 125 139 171 171 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -50.0 -49.9 -49.5 -49.2 -49.5 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 81 84 84 88 88 87 86 84 84 82 78 74 65 61 56 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 12 12 18 19 23 26 31 36 41 39 33 23 15 10 850 MB ENV VOR 53 54 61 71 74 103 114 106 90 98 102 131 97 86 50 47 29 200 MB DIV 107 110 129 121 104 127 122 121 106 90 117 121 69 28 -14 33 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 -1 -5 -4 -13 1 4 10 10 12 13 2 0 -7 LAND (KM) 350 330 310 282 269 284 312 304 301 355 283 186 32 3 -31 46 -76 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 9 9 10 11 10 10 12 13 11 10 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 19 25 24 19 24 29 31 46 23 9 3 0 4 33 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 31. 34. 37. 40. 41. 43. 45. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 19. 24. 32. 39. 42. 36. 26. 14. 6. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 28. 37. 50. 60. 70. 79. 84. 81. 71. 59. 54. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 96.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932022 INVEST 09/03/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.76 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.30 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 10.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.9% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% 20.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 8.2% 2.9% 1.5% 0.3% 13.2% 60.6% 41.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.3% 3.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 25.1% Consensus: 0.2% 12.1% 8.3% 0.7% 0.1% 10.6% 27.2% 22.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 10.0% 32.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932022 INVEST 09/03/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##