* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932022 09/02/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 41 53 70 85 94 104 115 117 118 109 103 99 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 41 53 70 85 54 35 35 37 34 25 19 16 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 26 29 34 41 34 29 28 41 44 44 42 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 10 11 16 16 9 5 4 1 6 13 10 9 14 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -2 0 4 4 -5 1 -3 -5 2 5 SHEAR DIR 36 19 23 28 27 41 14 23 74 285 271 263 255 294 346 79 157 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.0 28.3 29.5 29.3 24.3 24.8 26.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 152 153 154 160 163 167 157 151 163 161 108 111 127 141 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -52.3 -52.9 -51.7 -52.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.4 -50.5 -49.3 -49.3 -49.2 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 5 4 5 4 6 4 9 8 11 5 3 1 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 76 79 81 84 88 89 86 83 83 84 75 65 60 59 57 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 9 9 10 13 16 22 25 27 32 38 41 46 43 41 36 850 MB ENV VOR 20 34 46 50 47 58 65 87 88 116 110 117 92 126 138 125 93 200 MB DIV 28 53 76 93 101 132 137 132 113 97 48 49 71 52 19 -6 22 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -11 -3 -5 0 -1 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 334 346 374 389 403 400 330 193 43 -101 -80 0 4 156 462 504 221 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.3 13.0 14.4 16.4 18.9 21.8 24.5 26.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.5 96.9 97.1 97.3 97.7 98.1 98.7 99.9 101.9 104.6 107.7 111.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 2 2 2 6 9 14 17 20 19 19 16 11 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 12 12 14 21 22 24 16 10 18 16 0 0 0 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 28. 33. 36. 40. 43. 44. 45. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 10. 20. 26. 29. 35. 41. 41. 42. 36. 30. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 21. 33. 50. 65. 74. 84. 95. 97. 98. 89. 83. 79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.7 96.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932022 INVEST 09/02/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 42.8% 20.7% 12.5% 4.6% 31.8% 69.6% 63.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 2.3% 10.9% Consensus: 2.3% 15.3% 7.2% 4.3% 1.6% 10.8% 24.0% 24.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932022 INVEST 09/02/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##