* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932022 06/16/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 36 41 44 48 54 60 64 67 68 60 58 56 52 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 36 41 44 48 54 60 64 67 68 60 58 56 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 27 26 27 27 28 28 28 27 26 26 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 7 14 4 8 14 24 21 25 29 29 36 34 35 31 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 9 2 13 18 10 4 2 2 0 3 3 4 6 8 -1 SHEAR DIR 334 4 45 82 23 63 79 79 83 78 72 75 73 78 89 78 61 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.7 28.4 28.0 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 132 133 133 133 136 137 142 147 152 149 145 150 150 152 153 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -53.7 -54.4 -53.4 -54.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 3 3 5 4 6 4 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 83 84 85 84 83 86 84 87 88 90 89 91 88 86 86 80 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 14 14 17 16 16 17 17 18 19 20 16 17 18 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 52 67 72 91 89 82 91 103 113 112 102 110 109 96 81 200 MB DIV 110 96 122 112 105 109 109 152 134 170 168 175 135 143 135 69 40 700-850 TADV 1 4 5 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -2 0 5 0 -3 LAND (KM) 301 303 306 272 239 161 107 124 137 168 273 223 298 387 449 493 601 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 2 4 3 3 3 4 6 9 10 12 11 9 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 2 4 5 7 10 15 13 10 26 23 20 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. 33. 35. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 2. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 16. 19. 23. 29. 35. 39. 42. 43. 35. 33. 31. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 90.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932022 INVEST 06/16/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.74 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.47 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.7% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 13.0% 6.4% 3.9% 0.2% 13.2% 10.3% 19.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 11.3% 7.6% 1.3% 0.1% 4.4% 3.4% 6.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932022 INVEST 06/16/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##