* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932022 06/16/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 25 26 30 36 39 43 46 49 50 50 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 25 26 25 26 26 27 27 32 30 28 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 19 18 20 24 26 26 26 31 34 28 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 24 18 14 12 3 15 21 19 18 11 11 12 13 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 2 0 -1 9 4 2 0 0 -1 2 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 344 345 339 322 304 266 102 97 92 89 98 110 109 74 101 97 91 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.6 29.2 28.5 28.5 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 137 143 147 145 143 144 146 150 157 150 150 155 153 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.6 -54.0 -54.4 -53.6 -54.2 -53.1 -53.3 -52.4 -53.0 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 5 5 3 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 83 81 80 78 79 81 85 83 86 88 90 89 90 89 90 87 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 47 41 41 50 73 94 96 105 109 111 109 141 136 136 144 149 200 MB DIV 111 120 100 107 132 95 89 58 105 114 113 118 127 86 73 91 81 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 1 1 -3 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 270 277 274 242 222 136 31 -37 -55 -35 -15 -8 78 -7 -32 45 122 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.9 13.8 14.3 14.4 14.1 14.1 14.4 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.4 91.7 91.9 91.9 91.9 91.8 91.5 90.7 90.2 90.1 90.7 92.0 93.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 5 5 4 2 1 5 8 11 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 5 5 6 9 12 13 12 13 13 13 15 10 11 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 32. 33. 35. 37. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. 5. 11. 14. 18. 21. 24. 25. 25. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 91.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932022 INVEST 06/16/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 2.4% 13.6% 14.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4.8% 9.1% 5.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932022 INVEST 06/16/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##