* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932022 06/15/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 28 30 32 36 44 49 55 58 61 62 61 61 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 28 30 32 36 44 49 55 58 48 52 51 50 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 20 21 23 23 27 29 31 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 18 19 12 7 5 14 20 21 17 20 20 22 26 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 4 2 3 3 9 4 -1 2 1 1 0 4 5 5 SHEAR DIR 353 351 356 350 335 295 302 91 86 94 84 82 78 81 74 75 58 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 29.1 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 136 136 136 138 140 142 143 148 149 156 149 149 150 150 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 5 3 5 4 6 4 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 82 83 81 79 79 81 83 86 84 88 89 89 89 90 88 89 84 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 10 12 13 12 14 14 15 16 15 17 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 43 31 38 32 33 51 74 90 105 105 114 117 131 136 127 124 122 200 MB DIV 92 129 137 147 132 104 106 95 121 104 126 129 138 123 102 94 103 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 0 1 1 -1 1 1 0 1 0 3 -1 0 -7 LAND (KM) 270 284 292 286 275 257 196 135 62 18 10 -6 87 90 137 221 266 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.2 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.4 91.9 92.1 92.2 92.2 92.0 91.5 90.5 89.6 89.3 90.1 91.6 93.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 2 1 1 2 4 6 4 2 7 9 11 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 8 10 13 12 15 9 10 15 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. 9. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 19. 24. 30. 33. 36. 37. 36. 36. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 91.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932022 INVEST 06/15/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.83 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.01 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 5.2% 19.9% 20.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.1% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0% 6.2% 11.3% 6.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932022 INVEST 06/15/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##