* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932022 06/15/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 27 28 30 34 38 40 42 44 46 47 48 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 27 28 30 34 38 40 42 44 46 47 48 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 17 16 16 16 17 18 18 19 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 21 21 21 11 8 2 15 22 23 29 23 26 24 20 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 3 4 0 1 11 8 2 -3 0 3 1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 356 350 344 336 333 322 300 26 103 97 93 87 75 63 59 55 43 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.3 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 137 140 138 135 135 137 140 146 150 150 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.9 -54.2 -54.7 -53.9 -54.5 -53.6 -54.1 -53.2 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 3 3 4 3 5 4 6 4 6 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 82 79 80 80 82 81 82 83 87 89 92 91 91 87 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 10 10 12 13 12 11 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 57 50 49 47 35 21 37 56 77 82 81 85 87 91 98 84 70 200 MB DIV 88 94 116 119 120 130 92 80 60 100 88 120 141 172 150 133 138 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 213 245 250 270 277 286 257 193 146 156 205 247 259 247 239 254 122 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.8 12.3 12.6 12.5 12.0 11.7 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.1 91.5 91.8 92.0 92.2 92.0 91.7 91.2 90.9 90.9 91.3 91.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 0 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 5 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 6 7 6 4 4 5 7 11 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 90.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932022 INVEST 06/15/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.5% 8.7% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 7.1% 4.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932022 INVEST 06/15/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##