* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932022 06/15/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 25 25 25 29 35 39 40 43 43 46 45 46 48 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 25 25 25 29 35 39 40 43 43 46 45 46 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 17 16 15 16 17 19 20 20 21 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 18 18 21 19 8 2 10 20 23 25 27 25 29 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 2 3 0 4 10 1 -2 0 -1 3 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 341 356 340 327 325 323 293 331 88 91 97 98 95 80 79 73 52 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 137 137 137 136 137 139 139 142 142 146 150 153 151 148 143 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 5 4 3 5 3 5 4 6 5 6 4 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 85 83 80 83 81 78 81 82 85 81 84 85 88 87 90 89 90 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 11 10 11 11 12 10 9 9 9 10 12 11 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 65 64 55 57 58 39 54 61 91 94 116 104 116 113 127 117 116 200 MB DIV 94 108 105 143 134 114 121 89 97 64 101 88 102 113 100 129 116 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 152 175 183 199 223 221 216 189 144 88 64 56 67 100 204 173 207 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 11.9 12.0 12.0 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.9 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.8 90.1 90.5 90.8 91.2 91.6 91.4 91.0 90.3 89.5 89.2 89.7 90.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 3 4 4 1 5 8 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 7 8 10 12 14 12 11 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 2. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 0. -0. 0. 4. 10. 14. 15. 18. 18. 21. 20. 21. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 89.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932022 INVEST 06/15/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.78 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.09 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.6% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 3.6% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.4% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 5.2% 2.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932022 INVEST 06/15/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##