* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932022 06/15/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 34 33 36 40 42 47 50 52 55 54 54 54 56 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 34 33 36 40 42 47 50 52 55 54 54 54 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 29 27 25 23 23 23 24 27 28 29 31 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 15 16 21 25 12 6 2 15 23 22 27 27 27 26 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 1 4 0 1 3 6 0 -3 0 0 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 41 339 353 336 327 331 309 281 224 98 94 92 87 83 69 59 53 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.5 29.0 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 141 141 142 141 142 143 144 143 139 141 144 148 154 149 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -54.2 -53.8 -54.8 -54.0 -54.6 -53.8 -54.4 -53.5 -54.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 5 4 3 5 3 5 4 6 4 5 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 86 83 82 80 82 78 78 77 80 82 83 82 88 90 91 91 91 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 10 11 9 11 12 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR 60 66 64 59 59 35 21 37 75 89 106 88 89 99 85 97 96 200 MB DIV 80 81 104 122 134 152 134 90 85 64 102 127 140 135 134 150 157 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 3 0 2 2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 111 134 162 170 197 230 224 212 154 119 82 102 138 171 233 344 289 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.4 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.8 90.3 90.8 91.3 91.8 92.6 92.7 92.4 91.5 90.4 89.6 89.6 90.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 3 0 3 5 5 2 2 6 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 6 7 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 6 8 12 22 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. 34. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. 0. 2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 11. 15. 17. 22. 25. 27. 30. 29. 29. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 89.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932022 INVEST 06/15/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.33 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.3% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 15.9% 6.8% 4.7% 1.1% 7.9% 30.0% 36.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 1.2% 12.5% 7.9% 1.6% 0.4% 7.6% 14.9% 12.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 21.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932022 INVEST 06/15/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##