* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932022 06/14/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 34 36 43 45 50 51 55 55 57 57 56 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 34 36 43 45 50 51 55 55 57 57 56 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 23 22 21 22 24 26 29 31 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 5 13 17 17 24 16 8 4 10 23 24 24 24 25 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 0 2 1 1 0 7 3 -2 0 0 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 41 351 336 343 324 332 319 280 268 85 87 92 88 76 62 63 60 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 143 143 143 143 142 142 145 146 147 145 145 148 152 156 149 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 5 4 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 4 5 4 6 700-500 MB RH 83 86 82 81 79 79 78 77 79 81 80 84 86 90 90 88 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 13 12 11 10 10 9 11 11 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 63 65 72 68 61 46 22 37 78 107 120 132 118 123 114 113 94 200 MB DIV 59 67 80 105 124 148 124 122 109 77 108 125 125 128 115 135 132 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 1 1 1 1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 88 100 125 145 154 195 213 203 158 122 57 44 44 60 45 120 154 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.5 90.0 90.5 91.0 91.5 92.5 92.9 92.7 92.1 91.0 89.5 88.7 88.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 3 0 2 4 7 6 2 4 7 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 14 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 4. 2. 1. -0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 18. 20. 25. 26. 30. 30. 32. 32. 31. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 89.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932022 INVEST 06/14/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.38 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.8% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 31.4% 14.0% 9.8% 2.7% 11.1% 18.0% 24.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 17.4% 9.9% 3.3% 0.9% 8.4% 10.7% 8.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932022 INVEST 06/14/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##