* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932022 06/14/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 27 29 31 31 33 38 42 42 45 47 51 51 51 53 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 27 29 31 31 33 38 42 42 45 47 45 35 30 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 20 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 6 10 17 23 28 19 14 21 29 23 20 19 16 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 1 0 1 0 7 8 0 -2 -3 0 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 31 28 337 340 342 333 334 312 340 58 82 76 94 89 62 63 47 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.6 28.2 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 141 141 140 140 141 140 140 137 138 144 151 151 151 158 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.3 -54.1 -53.8 -54.7 -53.6 -54.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 4 3 3 4 3 5 3 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 85 84 86 84 82 82 78 78 78 82 83 87 90 91 89 88 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 9 10 10 11 9 8 8 11 10 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 75 69 69 71 66 72 48 32 57 86 97 126 133 139 125 114 116 200 MB DIV 76 84 107 89 108 148 114 131 109 90 109 146 127 113 105 109 109 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 1 0 0 2 -1 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 89 78 89 111 134 168 177 181 189 184 157 104 42 0 -60 -55 90 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.3 12.1 11.7 11.7 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.6 88.9 89.3 89.8 90.3 91.2 91.8 91.9 91.6 90.7 89.1 87.8 87.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 3 2 1 2 7 8 5 4 7 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 7 5 3 4 9 15 14 13 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. 37. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -3. -0. -1. -0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 13. 18. 22. 22. 25. 27. 31. 31. 31. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 88.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932022 INVEST 06/14/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.9% 46.9% 24.9% 17.7% 7.8% 22.4% 34.2% 28.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 16.1% 8.5% 6.0% 2.6% 7.5% 11.4% 9.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932022 INVEST 06/14/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##