* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922022 09/01/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 48 53 51 47 42 38 35 30 30 32 33 35 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 48 53 51 47 42 38 35 30 30 32 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 38 38 34 29 25 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 2 7 5 5 9 6 8 6 7 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 0 4 2 -1 3 5 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 339 343 238 229 186 144 153 247 241 227 225 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.4 28.7 27.4 25.5 24.1 22.3 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 164 158 151 138 119 105 86 74 78 82 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 77 77 73 73 66 64 58 55 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 20 22 22 19 16 14 13 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 50 70 81 89 113 123 106 85 82 72 89 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 86 79 88 65 72 8 -19 -16 3 -16 -9 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -8 -5 -1 2 6 0 0 7 10 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 506 470 408 367 348 298 356 463 612 815 1026 1250 1477 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 11 11 13 12 10 10 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 28 35 34 18 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 428 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 18. 19. 18. 17. 13. 12. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 0. -3. -5. -5. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 23. 21. 17. 12. 8. 5. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.0 109.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922022 INVEST 09/01/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 22.3% 20.5% 19.7% 0.0% 19.0% 15.7% 10.7% Logistic: 2.2% 13.6% 7.1% 3.4% 0.7% 11.9% 9.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 12.1% 9.2% 7.7% 0.2% 10.3% 8.3% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922022 INVEST 09/01/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##