* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922022 09/01/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 46 55 63 69 65 60 55 50 46 46 47 49 51 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 46 55 63 69 65 60 55 50 46 46 47 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 40 43 49 54 55 50 42 35 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 8 3 3 7 5 4 4 9 5 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 8 2 3 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 25 36 7 24 199 178 171 114 243 216 201 190 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 28.8 27.6 26.0 24.1 22.5 21.7 21.7 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 164 164 163 152 140 124 105 87 79 79 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 79 79 77 72 74 67 65 59 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 18 19 22 23 25 22 20 18 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 26 34 47 62 88 120 111 105 93 76 74 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 110 92 78 80 58 74 0 -15 -20 1 -3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -7 -7 -6 -1 3 3 -2 0 10 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 437 459 488 473 411 364 348 312 431 562 754 997 1250 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 9 9 12 13 11 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 26 32 30 33 22 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 23. 23. 21. 18. 17. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 9. 7. 4. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 16. 25. 33. 39. 35. 30. 25. 20. 16. 16. 18. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 107.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922022 INVEST 09/01/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 31.9% 23.3% 22.7% 0.0% 27.6% 39.3% 21.5% Logistic: 2.3% 18.7% 12.7% 6.9% 0.8% 33.5% 38.7% 5.6% Bayesian: 2.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% Consensus: 5.1% 17.4% 12.1% 9.9% 0.3% 20.4% 26.5% 9.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922022 INVEST 09/01/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##