* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922022 08/31/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 45 52 62 67 66 60 54 49 45 42 40 39 36 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 45 52 62 67 66 60 54 49 45 42 40 39 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 40 43 48 53 55 50 42 36 31 28 27 26 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 10 7 3 6 8 5 3 5 4 4 8 8 8 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 0 0 -1 0 -1 5 2 2 0 -1 0 1 1 -6 SHEAR DIR 55 40 37 46 32 178 186 148 138 205 222 141 128 124 115 159 210 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.7 30.1 30.0 28.9 27.6 25.7 24.2 22.6 22.3 23.7 24.2 24.6 24.2 23.6 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 162 166 165 154 141 122 107 90 87 100 103 104 102 97 95 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 76 78 79 80 79 77 72 66 58 53 55 53 47 48 46 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 15 17 17 21 21 20 18 15 14 13 13 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 2 24 28 31 55 89 121 158 138 134 136 159 159 177 156 140 82 200 MB DIV 69 119 94 80 69 66 53 35 -13 -3 -18 -23 -1 2 0 -11 -12 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -8 -7 -8 -3 0 -2 0 2 -4 -1 0 -3 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 429 429 440 459 434 295 320 397 583 843 1183 1486 1687 1747 1734 1718 1733 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.2 19.0 20.7 22.1 23.2 23.9 24.0 23.5 22.2 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.9 108.6 109.4 110.1 111.6 113.4 115.8 118.9 122.3 125.8 128.4 129.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 14 15 16 15 12 6 1 5 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 23 27 36 33 19 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 5. 11. 17. 21. 23. 23. 23. 21. 19. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 10. 12. 13. 9. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 22. 32. 37. 36. 30. 24. 19. 15. 12. 10. 9. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 107.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922022 INVEST 08/31/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.46 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 21.7% 19.7% 19.2% 0.0% 19.9% 18.3% 17.9% Logistic: 1.4% 13.3% 9.4% 4.8% 1.1% 28.3% 18.5% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% Consensus: 3.2% 11.7% 9.7% 8.0% 0.4% 16.1% 12.4% 6.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922022 INVEST 08/31/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##