* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922022 06/13/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 44 50 60 70 78 80 81 74 63 56 50 45 39 35 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 44 50 60 70 78 80 81 74 63 56 50 45 39 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 43 52 60 66 68 66 59 49 41 35 30 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 8 11 15 23 21 23 24 24 24 18 11 3 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -3 -5 -3 -3 1 3 3 3 -2 -2 -2 0 3 7 SHEAR DIR 20 58 87 119 116 99 91 81 73 61 57 50 40 39 56 127 170 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 27.5 25.5 25.7 25.0 24.4 24.9 24.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 154 153 151 150 150 151 139 118 119 111 105 110 102 102 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 78 77 79 79 82 76 71 71 69 67 64 62 54 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 13 15 16 21 24 26 29 29 24 23 20 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 41 56 63 63 67 103 118 114 117 117 127 94 85 69 82 77 80 200 MB DIV 55 35 28 25 39 90 136 108 123 86 32 16 7 10 -10 -23 -13 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 -1 -4 -13 -21 -11 -16 -4 -4 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 511 467 424 405 387 382 329 316 384 446 578 542 550 600 702 767 830 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 2 2 4 6 10 11 10 6 5 6 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 37 34 29 26 24 22 17 15 14 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 16. 21. 25. 24. 17. 14. 9. 7. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 20. 30. 40. 48. 50. 51. 44. 33. 26. 20. 15. 9. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 102.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922022 INVEST 06/13/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 29.1% 21.5% 20.2% 0.0% 19.4% 16.7% 18.1% Logistic: 36.7% 69.2% 54.4% 39.1% 29.1% 41.7% 44.3% 30.2% Bayesian: 7.9% 64.9% 25.8% 8.2% 3.9% 41.8% 27.0% 1.6% Consensus: 19.2% 54.4% 33.9% 22.5% 11.0% 34.3% 29.3% 16.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 13.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 8.0% 14.0% 24.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922022 INVEST 06/13/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##