* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922022 06/13/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 30 35 39 49 60 69 72 70 61 55 47 46 46 44 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 35 39 49 60 69 72 70 61 55 47 46 46 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 44 47 47 42 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 4 2 3 4 12 18 23 28 32 28 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 2 1 0 1 5 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 331 333 115 127 111 79 84 80 77 72 55 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.0 27.7 25.8 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 155 155 155 155 154 151 144 141 121 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 78 78 79 79 78 81 82 80 76 76 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 14 15 15 19 21 24 24 25 21 20 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 56 64 77 79 86 107 126 128 122 113 109 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 86 62 51 61 99 129 164 145 133 82 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -2 0 -1 0 1 0 -6 -13 -14 -10 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 515 493 470 427 385 347 311 261 267 315 344 443 472 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 3 2 4 7 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 43 42 39 34 30 26 22 19 8 10 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 34. 36. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -6. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 17. 20. 21. 16. 14. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 10. 14. 24. 35. 44. 47. 45. 36. 30. 22. 21. 21. 19. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 101.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922022 INVEST 06/13/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.83 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.36 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.8% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 21.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 21.2% 12.4% 6.0% 1.0% 12.5% 20.2% 14.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 6.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 1.2% 12.7% Consensus: 0.9% 17.3% 11.9% 2.1% 0.3% 10.8% 14.2% 9.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922022 INVEST 06/13/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##