* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922022 06/12/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 44 56 69 76 85 84 85 76 70 59 48 38 31 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 44 56 69 76 85 84 85 76 70 59 48 38 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 38 46 55 64 70 70 66 60 50 38 30 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 6 2 2 1 12 20 25 28 23 23 17 24 16 14 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 1 0 2 2 6 2 0 3 1 2 -1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 234 240 291 299 218 11 99 69 76 70 74 64 43 28 30 23 348 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.7 26.4 22.7 21.2 22.6 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 153 154 155 156 154 156 155 153 153 130 91 75 88 93 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 4 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 75 77 79 78 80 79 83 86 82 79 75 71 70 66 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 12 15 18 22 23 28 28 31 28 26 22 19 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 61 66 68 66 70 82 91 102 106 105 115 111 104 63 67 72 87 200 MB DIV 91 108 98 88 90 84 93 120 174 159 137 57 16 9 -8 -35 -21 700-850 TADV 1 1 -4 -3 0 -4 1 3 3 2 1 0 -2 -15 -6 -5 3 LAND (KM) 442 478 492 476 450 404 382 372 336 264 167 74 170 213 381 572 748 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.4 13.7 13.8 14.2 15.0 16.5 18.4 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.6 100.9 101.0 101.1 101.2 101.4 101.4 101.5 101.7 102.6 104.6 107.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 2 3 3 2 2 1 3 6 11 14 17 16 13 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 37 40 41 42 38 35 33 29 22 18 10 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 37. 37. 35. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 13. 17. 26. 27. 30. 24. 20. 14. 10. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 20. 31. 44. 51. 60. 59. 60. 51. 45. 34. 23. 13. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 100.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922022 INVEST 06/12/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.34 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.77 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 36.5% 23.3% 0.0% 0.0% 31.3% 44.9% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 46.1% 36.6% 22.3% 4.1% 42.6% 38.4% 42.8% Bayesian: 5.8% 52.8% 45.7% 18.5% 0.5% 34.2% 46.5% 52.5% Consensus: 4.3% 45.1% 35.2% 13.6% 1.5% 36.0% 43.2% 31.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 13.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 8.0% 17.0% 44.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922022 INVEST 06/12/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##