* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922022 06/12/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 18 22 31 38 43 45 48 50 49 47 42 36 30 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 18 22 31 38 43 45 48 50 49 47 42 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 17 17 18 20 20 21 22 23 24 23 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 11 5 1 5 13 25 25 26 9 14 18 21 23 23 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 7 6 0 -2 0 4 1 -3 3 0 2 -1 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 281 271 263 291 203 127 79 81 77 87 70 57 9 345 343 351 14 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.6 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.6 27.8 25.0 22.2 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 152 153 154 150 147 152 155 154 151 142 113 83 73 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.4 -53.7 -52.8 -53.2 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 3 6 3 5 2 3 0 700-500 MB RH 76 73 74 78 79 80 82 84 87 85 82 77 73 72 69 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 55 64 72 67 88 94 112 128 114 124 135 103 111 74 61 60 200 MB DIV 68 97 120 109 107 89 90 125 138 159 129 99 56 16 -9 -33 -10 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -5 -1 0 2 0 -2 -6 -12 -13 -6 -15 -13 -25 -2 LAND (KM) 421 481 499 502 482 427 377 290 220 159 101 67 34 83 256 157 190 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.3 16.3 17.4 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.5 100.2 100.6 100.9 100.9 100.8 100.6 100.0 99.8 100.0 101.0 102.6 104.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 3 2 2 2 4 4 3 5 9 10 11 10 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 33 37 40 40 36 28 14 12 15 16 14 9 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 41. 43. 44. 43. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 11. 18. 23. 25. 28. 30. 29. 27. 22. 16. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 99.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922022 INVEST 06/12/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 6.0% 3.6% 1.4% 0.1% 5.4% 10.8% 15.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 8.2% Consensus: 0.3% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 1.8% 3.6% 8.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922022 INVEST 06/12/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##