* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922022 06/12/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 19 19 21 26 32 34 36 37 37 36 35 33 33 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 19 19 21 26 32 34 36 37 37 36 35 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 21 23 13 13 12 18 22 24 22 21 21 19 15 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 3 8 0 -2 1 1 5 5 4 3 5 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 348 331 285 256 246 241 201 157 115 104 101 97 86 56 47 49 21 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.2 27.5 25.9 26.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 141 144 147 152 152 150 148 148 146 144 146 139 123 129 133 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -53.3 -54.0 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.0 -53.1 -52.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 6 8 6 7 5 5 3 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 75 75 73 75 79 80 81 81 83 79 76 73 73 68 68 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 53 59 67 96 88 100 105 119 120 115 91 109 92 92 69 61 200 MB DIV 17 37 71 91 114 119 104 85 86 79 129 93 81 45 9 3 -32 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -5 -7 -4 -2 2 3 3 3 -2 -4 -3 -5 2 -1 LAND (KM) 254 276 283 294 304 283 239 229 253 267 267 315 354 432 581 619 716 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 14.2 14.9 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.1 98.5 98.9 99.4 100.3 100.9 101.6 102.3 103.0 103.8 104.9 106.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 6 9 10 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 9 11 18 20 20 22 23 20 11 12 10 0 1 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 37. 38. 40. 41. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.6 97.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922022 INVEST 06/12/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.3% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 2.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922022 INVEST 06/12/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##