* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922022 06/11/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 19 20 23 28 32 33 34 34 34 34 32 29 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 20 19 20 23 28 32 33 34 34 34 34 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 15 15 23 21 19 11 15 16 22 27 26 17 15 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 2 3 3 -1 0 0 2 3 3 2 3 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 349 339 319 281 255 242 225 199 163 111 106 89 86 58 14 358 337 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.3 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 26.5 24.9 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 141 141 146 151 151 148 148 145 143 142 143 128 112 109 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 6 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 74 76 75 72 77 78 82 81 80 79 77 74 74 73 72 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 36 53 54 64 96 90 99 109 103 102 109 93 103 104 82 71 200 MB DIV 3 25 41 59 78 101 109 96 95 78 110 89 87 79 61 17 2 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -3 -4 -7 -4 -4 1 6 4 -1 -5 -10 0 -19 -7 LAND (KM) 217 226 233 241 237 233 202 201 222 279 291 302 304 295 311 413 366 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.3 15.0 15.4 15.6 15.5 15.6 15.8 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.7 97.2 97.6 98.0 98.4 99.4 100.3 101.2 102.1 103.0 103.9 104.5 105.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 5 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 7 6 9 17 19 20 23 19 13 9 8 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 38. 40. 41. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 8. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 12. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.8 96.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922022 INVEST 06/11/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922022 INVEST 06/11/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##