* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922022 06/11/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 36 45 52 55 53 50 51 48 48 46 44 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 36 45 52 55 53 50 51 48 48 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 26 26 25 25 27 29 29 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 17 12 8 14 23 18 15 14 15 19 18 20 20 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 4 -1 -1 0 -3 -2 -5 3 3 8 6 SHEAR DIR 19 9 2 347 323 246 232 218 184 141 115 122 101 109 98 69 59 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.9 29.1 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.7 27.7 26.9 25.5 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 155 154 152 149 152 154 151 153 153 150 141 133 119 122 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -53.4 -53.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 6 8 6 8 6 6 5 5 3 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 71 75 74 73 76 77 79 80 81 76 74 70 68 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 7 7 9 13 17 17 16 12 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 21 20 20 42 47 70 88 100 125 146 131 117 87 100 72 44 200 MB DIV 8 25 22 26 54 56 83 97 100 94 99 75 104 33 39 -4 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 -4 -5 -4 -5 1 -4 -4 0 LAND (KM) 277 242 225 223 226 215 161 93 42 21 30 56 84 161 245 409 454 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.6 95.9 96.3 96.6 97.2 97.8 98.5 99.2 100.1 101.0 101.9 103.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 3 5 6 5 5 5 5 7 9 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 16 15 13 10 14 16 13 14 15 14 5 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 41. 43. 45. 45. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 16. 15. 9. 4. 2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 25. 32. 35. 33. 30. 31. 28. 28. 26. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.4 95.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922022 INVEST 06/11/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 5.6% 1.8% 0.8% 0.5% 2.8% 3.7% 11.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 1.3% 3.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922022 INVEST 06/11/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##