* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912022 08/24/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 24 23 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 24 23 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 13 12 9 6 13 14 16 18 18 19 25 27 24 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -2 0 -4 -1 -1 -3 -3 -4 -1 0 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 74 80 91 129 151 163 175 195 198 212 211 210 200 206 195 189 182 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.7 25.7 24.9 23.4 23.0 22.8 22.5 22.4 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.0 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 135 133 130 120 112 96 92 89 85 83 80 79 80 78 77 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 58 56 57 50 48 42 38 36 33 29 26 21 18 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 47 42 37 34 30 1 7 -3 1 -16 -15 -27 -24 -18 -26 -39 200 MB DIV -3 0 6 1 -15 -3 -9 -6 9 5 1 0 -9 -10 -11 -3 -6 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 2 7 4 3 2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 870 893 918 953 991 1091 1162 1256 1382 1490 1564 1567 1516 1458 1376 1306 1251 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 19.0 19.6 20.5 21.1 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.4 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.3 117.8 118.3 118.9 119.6 121.3 123.2 125.0 127.0 128.5 129.6 130.1 130.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 8 10 9 10 9 7 5 3 3 3 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 17. 13. 10. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -29. -35. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.5 117.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912022 INVEST 08/24/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.35 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.78 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.3% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912022 INVEST 08/24/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##