* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912022 08/23/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 33 33 33 33 34 34 32 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 33 33 33 33 34 34 32 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 32 30 27 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 17 22 20 12 10 6 11 14 18 23 24 24 28 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -3 0 2 0 1 -2 -3 0 -3 -5 -3 -1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 110 96 81 76 78 63 105 145 173 199 208 211 207 209 205 207 196 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 26.6 26.0 25.0 23.4 23.2 23.0 23.2 23.3 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 134 133 133 128 123 113 96 94 91 92 92 90 88 86 85 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 58 59 61 57 54 49 45 38 35 30 27 25 23 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 27 29 36 46 34 21 5 -17 -15 -13 1 -7 -12 -13 -20 -23 200 MB DIV -3 10 27 16 11 10 -10 -5 -15 -3 -5 0 0 -3 -3 -1 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 3 3 2 0 2 9 7 13 6 6 3 0 0 -6 LAND (KM) 778 810 855 895 942 1021 1108 1203 1278 1388 1527 1620 1670 1681 1658 1608 1522 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.7 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.6 19.2 19.9 20.9 21.7 22.3 22.7 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.6 117.2 117.7 118.4 119.6 121.2 123.1 125.1 127.0 128.9 130.1 131.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 6 9 10 10 9 8 6 4 3 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 432 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 13. 10. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -4. -8. -12. -17. -23. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.7 116.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912022 INVEST 08/23/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.13 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 11.7% 6.4% 4.1% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.1% 2.3% 1.4% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912022 INVEST 08/23/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##