* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912022 08/22/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 34 34 33 30 26 23 19 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 34 34 33 30 26 23 19 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 22 21 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 17 21 21 16 12 3 5 9 14 20 20 22 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 -2 -2 2 0 3 0 0 0 -4 -4 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 83 73 88 78 80 82 63 94 148 170 209 209 209 208 211 210 217 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.6 25.3 24.3 23.4 23.3 23.5 23.5 23.2 23.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 139 138 135 132 129 116 106 96 95 96 95 91 89 88 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 66 63 62 62 62 64 65 62 60 54 52 45 42 38 35 31 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 13 16 31 40 50 43 33 19 -1 -8 -21 -11 -16 -22 -26 -35 200 MB DIV 6 0 9 15 32 46 12 3 -11 -2 4 -2 -10 -19 -15 -2 -9 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 -1 0 1 1 2 2 4 5 9 6 6 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 695 721 760 822 884 976 1047 1124 1241 1305 1415 1547 1666 1739 1787 1808 1814 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.4 18.4 18.2 17.9 17.8 18.0 18.6 19.3 20.3 21.1 21.9 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.0 115.5 116.1 116.6 118.0 119.3 120.9 122.9 124.9 126.9 128.9 130.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 6 6 7 9 10 11 10 8 7 5 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 11 8 7 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 24. 24. 22. 20. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.2 114.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912022 INVEST 08/22/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.33 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.5% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.6% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912022 INVEST 08/22/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##