* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912022 08/22/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 37 41 45 47 48 48 47 44 41 38 34 30 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 37 41 45 47 48 48 47 44 41 38 34 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 33 32 31 29 27 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 11 13 19 20 13 8 4 8 12 14 18 17 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 2 0 -4 -4 1 -2 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 100 117 92 80 91 88 95 63 104 182 205 216 221 220 215 215 208 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.1 27.0 26.0 25.8 24.5 24.1 23.3 23.5 23.2 23.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 142 138 137 133 132 123 121 108 104 95 96 92 90 90 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 66 64 66 66 65 62 61 56 53 48 45 41 39 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 12 9 17 14 35 32 20 20 16 4 -3 -16 -14 -11 -11 -11 200 MB DIV 7 25 26 11 14 30 42 13 10 -6 -5 -9 -7 -16 -26 -12 -4 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 3 4 7 5 5 2 1 LAND (KM) 689 717 759 808 844 940 1042 1121 1211 1324 1396 1509 1636 1742 1821 1855 1862 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.0 17.8 17.9 18.3 18.8 19.6 20.3 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.6 115.4 116.1 116.7 117.7 119.0 120.2 121.7 123.5 125.4 127.4 129.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 6 5 6 6 6 8 9 10 10 9 7 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 12 12 9 7 7 7 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 26. 26. 25. 23. 21. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. 19. 16. 13. 9. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.7 113.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912022 INVEST 08/22/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.68 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.18 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.2% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 6.4% 3.5% 1.5% 0.6% 1.6% 2.6% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 8.0% 6.3% 0.5% 0.2% 4.8% 4.3% 1.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912022 INVEST 08/22/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##