* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912022 05/26/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 25 30 38 51 63 76 83 90 84 72 67 65 64 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 25 30 38 51 63 76 83 90 84 52 35 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 34 36 39 39 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 6 3 5 6 7 4 4 3 3 7 15 16 8 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -1 -5 -2 0 0 6 5 2 -2 0 1 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 208 218 241 311 235 199 144 179 283 345 338 114 121 151 171 211 201 SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.5 30.3 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 29.8 29.2 27.5 26.6 26.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 170 169 166 165 166 165 165 166 166 162 156 138 127 121 128 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -52.9 -53.4 -52.6 -53.2 -52.3 -52.9 -51.9 -53.0 -52.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 6 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 8 5 7 5 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 75 77 79 82 83 82 78 77 73 72 72 75 74 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 5 6 8 12 15 21 23 26 21 12 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 23 24 25 12 4 6 12 20 39 50 79 112 120 106 113 84 200 MB DIV 85 34 20 19 12 57 102 162 208 198 145 131 87 96 88 111 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 -2 2 0 0 2 3 1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 315 336 307 300 308 347 403 447 459 415 348 222 54 -104 -215 -198 -223 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.8 12.4 12.1 12.1 12.6 13.3 14.5 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.5 95.0 95.6 96.3 96.9 97.8 98.5 99.0 99.4 99.6 99.7 99.6 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 3 5 7 7 7 4 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 32 37 41 39 38 46 55 57 55 55 48 29 17 4 1 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 20. 27. 32. 35. 39. 42. 45. 47. 47. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 22. 25. 27. 19. 7. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 26. 38. 51. 58. 65. 59. 47. 42. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 94.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912022 INVEST 05/26/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.33 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.9% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 41.5% 30.5% 15.2% 8.9% 37.6% 62.3% 64.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.2% 2.6% 13.3% 2.8% Consensus: 2.1% 22.2% 16.7% 5.1% 3.0% 19.5% 30.8% 22.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912022 INVEST 05/26/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##