* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912022 05/26/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 43 53 68 80 84 84 77 68 65 60 57 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 43 53 68 80 84 84 77 68 42 32 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 34 41 50 55 55 49 46 33 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 9 13 5 2 4 8 10 3 4 9 7 9 12 18 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 0 0 -6 0 -3 3 3 3 4 -3 -4 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 123 196 213 213 139 174 104 76 273 352 5 62 145 237 247 243 238 SST (C) 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.6 30.3 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.0 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 170 167 162 164 162 162 164 164 162 154 140 134 134 139 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 73 74 77 79 79 80 79 78 76 77 76 78 77 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 8 7 10 12 17 21 23 22 17 10 10 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 42 29 29 25 19 6 18 17 32 38 82 104 86 99 113 106 200 MB DIV 115 115 67 62 40 25 115 158 197 205 143 131 87 142 156 121 103 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 -2 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -11 -4 0 1 -1 2 LAND (KM) 324 330 364 358 368 407 463 502 511 484 387 212 14 -111 -49 -49 -112 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.2 11.8 11.5 11.4 11.6 12.4 13.9 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.6 95.1 95.8 96.5 97.5 98.2 98.5 98.4 98.1 97.6 97.0 96.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 6 4 3 1 1 3 7 9 9 7 2 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 35 39 38 37 45 54 54 53 53 46 27 13 3 5 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 4. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 42. 45. 46. 48. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 15. 23. 25. 24. 16. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 18. 29. 43. 55. 59. 59. 52. 43. 40. 35. 32. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 94.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912022 INVEST 05/26/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.71 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.32 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 34.5% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.7% 42.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 23.6% 15.9% 8.1% 3.5% 32.4% 45.7% 50.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 5.5% Consensus: 0.6% 19.6% 13.0% 2.7% 1.2% 19.4% 29.5% 18.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912022 INVEST 05/26/22 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING