* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912022 05/26/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 48 62 75 89 91 87 80 75 72 67 65 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 48 62 75 89 91 87 80 75 46 33 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 50 61 68 67 64 63 42 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 10 5 2 4 5 2 3 6 6 10 11 11 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -5 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 2 5 3 -5 -3 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 119 121 156 181 167 96 110 69 29 62 62 99 212 231 246 246 228 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.5 29.8 29.8 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 169 165 163 162 163 165 169 162 162 142 140 142 144 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.1 -53.0 -52.0 -52.8 -52.1 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 6 5 6 4 5 700-500 MB RH 72 74 73 73 74 77 79 79 80 81 78 77 79 80 81 83 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 7 8 9 14 17 21 20 17 12 8 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 57 47 36 31 21 16 11 19 26 51 69 91 72 101 121 129 200 MB DIV 87 123 113 70 80 54 129 176 200 171 176 123 114 85 136 125 140 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -3 -1 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -4 -1 2 1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 335 324 354 392 404 449 480 515 487 426 311 168 29 -112 -64 -61 -103 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.1 11.7 11.5 11.2 11.4 11.9 12.9 14.3 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.3 94.7 95.1 95.7 96.8 97.3 97.4 97.1 96.7 96.2 95.6 94.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 5 6 5 2 0 2 5 6 8 8 6 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 31 33 35 36 35 38 43 44 40 37 39 18 19 6 9 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 4. 11. 20. 27. 32. 35. 39. 42. 45. 48. 49. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 20. 15. 7. 3. 2. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 23. 37. 50. 64. 66. 62. 55. 50. 47. 42. 40. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 94.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912022 INVEST 05/26/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.67 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 54% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 45.3% 27.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37.3% 54.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 31.9% 22.4% 13.0% 8.0% 44.6% 71.6% 70.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 9.0% Consensus: 1.3% 26.2% 16.7% 4.4% 2.7% 27.3% 42.1% 26.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912022 INVEST 05/26/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##