* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912022 05/25/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 41 49 56 61 63 63 64 66 68 65 61 59 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 41 49 56 61 63 63 64 66 56 37 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 34 35 35 35 35 32 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 10 11 9 5 5 9 18 15 19 14 2 4 12 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -7 -5 -3 1 1 -2 -1 0 4 4 5 0 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 115 133 121 139 167 149 110 85 49 10 351 354 345 131 222 238 235 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.1 29.7 28.3 26.3 25.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 163 164 164 162 160 158 160 165 166 162 147 126 119 126 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 6 7 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 72 71 73 76 78 80 81 79 76 72 73 70 73 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 36 20 17 12 9 -2 0 0 17 44 65 95 94 116 111 200 MB DIV 73 80 93 81 65 46 44 117 153 204 199 130 171 48 90 120 105 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 4 -2 -4 -1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 490 480 487 504 512 570 626 684 713 663 550 376 182 -35 -170 -143 -241 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.1 10.6 10.2 9.7 9.4 9.8 10.8 12.4 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.1 95.3 95.6 96.0 96.8 97.5 97.7 97.5 97.1 96.9 97.0 97.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 4 4 4 3 3 1 3 7 9 10 9 8 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 27 28 29 33 39 37 32 31 35 40 25 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 12. 19. 26. 31. 34. 38. 41. 44. 46. 46. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 24. 31. 36. 38. 38. 39. 41. 43. 40. 36. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 95.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912022 INVEST 05/25/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.1% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0% 19.4% 23.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.4% 49.1% 32.9% 19.7% 24.1% 36.7% 63.2% 76.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 11.8% 4.9% 1.9% 0.6% 7.2% 11.5% 2.7% Consensus: 3.6% 28.3% 19.1% 7.2% 8.2% 21.1% 32.5% 26.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912022 INVEST 05/25/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##