* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 10/19/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 47 57 65 68 59 46 45 42 34 25 22 20 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 47 57 65 68 59 46 45 35 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 42 43 41 37 36 31 28 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 5 6 8 7 9 11 10 16 12 20 37 61 58 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -2 -2 -2 -6 -7 -3 -6 -4 1 6 0 -8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 96 98 122 141 204 233 188 174 159 150 172 232 254 263 273 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.2 28.9 29.0 27.8 27.5 27.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 161 160 161 159 153 149 145 145 153 154 141 137 137 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 75 72 69 67 62 57 55 52 49 36 21 21 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 13 15 17 16 11 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -22 -28 -20 -13 0 5 16 15 31 25 37 33 -22 -36 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 36 65 93 92 86 87 105 61 73 34 -4 -18 -69 -26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -1 -5 -2 7 4 -2 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 208 234 262 283 283 271 295 270 237 194 170 105 -82 -216 -290 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 8 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 36 37 37 34 33 26 20 15 12 24 22 9 7 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 4. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 35. 38. 39. 41. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. -2. -10. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 13. 5. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 32. 40. 43. 34. 21. 20. 17. 9. -0. -3. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 100.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 10/19/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.80 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.3% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0% 20.6% 26.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 27.8% 14.5% 9.4% 3.4% 25.6% 37.4% 15.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% Consensus: 1.5% 18.0% 12.1% 3.2% 1.2% 15.5% 21.5% 5.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 11.0% 39.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 10/19/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##