* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 10/19/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 33 41 48 56 64 66 62 57 52 45 39 38 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 33 41 48 56 64 66 62 57 52 34 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 35 38 40 40 38 35 28 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 4 6 8 10 10 9 6 8 16 13 15 29 57 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -4 -2 -2 -7 3 12 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 158 95 124 157 167 213 241 204 199 142 180 180 217 233 262 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.7 30.2 30.6 30.5 30.6 30.4 29.4 28.7 28.5 28.7 29.1 28.8 27.7 27.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 166 170 169 169 167 157 150 148 151 155 152 141 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 84 81 81 79 72 70 64 61 56 53 50 52 47 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 10 9 12 13 14 18 18 16 13 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 1 -2 -15 -24 -14 4 13 18 11 30 26 40 43 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 80 76 72 109 109 82 91 73 50 38 66 57 21 -44 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 0 1 0 -2 -1 -3 0 2 0 0 0 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 202 213 224 232 241 272 287 293 286 251 184 151 8 -186 -371 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 5 6 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 22 27 37 42 38 36 27 17 14 16 28 20 8 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 37. 40. 42. 44. 46. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 14. 11. 6. 0. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 16. 23. 31. 40. 41. 37. 32. 27. 20. 14. 13. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 99.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 10/19/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.82 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.7% 21.8% 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 37.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 32.2% 17.5% 12.5% 3.4% 32.8% 33.6% 11.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 3.2% Consensus: 1.6% 19.7% 13.3% 4.2% 1.1% 18.9% 23.7% 4.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 9.0% 49.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 10/19/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##