* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 10/19/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 46 53 59 60 58 50 52 48 47 39 28 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 46 53 59 53 38 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 31 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 5 7 11 10 12 12 5 6 15 16 9 12 26 50 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -3 0 -3 -4 -6 -6 -1 -4 -5 -4 1 4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 22 217 209 192 226 234 238 262 234 200 181 215 237 242 251 259 242 SST (C) 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.4 30.8 30.6 29.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 27.9 27.8 27.7 28.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 159 159 159 160 167 169 169 159 150 151 152 142 141 142 150 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 2 5 4 7 5 8 4 8 3 7 3 0 700-500 MB RH 85 84 84 82 81 73 67 60 58 53 48 47 49 49 50 52 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 10 11 11 14 17 18 19 18 13 12 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 12 5 2 -11 0 6 21 24 27 31 6 19 11 25 -16 200 MB DIV 127 104 124 121 119 102 124 72 55 15 14 41 0 3 36 77 72 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 2 20 -23 LAND (KM) 214 165 133 116 114 108 94 93 30 0 -71 -39 -136 -261 -460 -351 -320 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.8 20.3 21.8 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.7 99.0 99.2 99.5 99.9 100.7 101.5 102.2 103.0 103.9 104.7 105.1 104.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 4 4 5 4 5 6 8 8 8 7 8 12 21 25 HEAT CONTENT 16 21 22 22 23 29 33 31 19 13 16 17 10 9 9 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 27. 31. 34. 37. 40. 42. 44. 46. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 0. -8. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 10. 13. 14. 12. 5. 4. -1. -2. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 21. 28. 34. 35. 33. 25. 27. 23. 22. 14. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 98.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 10/19/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.79 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 37.6% 23.4% 0.0% 0.0% 27.8% 46.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 21.2% 11.0% 7.8% 2.1% 26.9% 51.8% 19.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Consensus: 0.9% 19.9% 11.6% 2.6% 0.7% 18.2% 32.7% 7.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 12.0% 52.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 10/19/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##