* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 10/18/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 35 38 45 54 59 65 62 54 45 46 45 40 35 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 35 38 45 54 59 65 62 54 38 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 30 30 33 34 32 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 7 8 12 13 10 3 7 14 21 10 20 35 35 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -6 -5 -5 -1 -6 -5 -6 -5 -2 -7 -1 1 11 7 10 SHEAR DIR 88 164 192 194 196 235 239 257 246 170 181 190 223 241 246 249 219 SST (C) 28.9 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.9 30.9 30.5 29.5 28.8 29.2 28.1 27.9 28.5 26.3 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 157 159 159 159 164 169 169 169 159 152 156 146 145 154 133 117 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 3 3 3 4 4 7 6 7 5 6 7 7 1 0 700-500 MB RH 85 86 86 84 82 79 70 65 58 57 51 50 49 52 46 33 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 11 11 14 17 16 19 18 13 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 18 15 19 14 0 -2 3 14 31 31 44 16 16 -19 42 21 200 MB DIV 105 132 122 122 144 139 150 93 79 57 92 60 56 60 33 71 67 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -4 -2 2 16 16 86 61 LAND (KM) 237 172 130 119 116 121 125 147 104 92 34 10 -98 -376 -231 -131 -448 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.6 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.2 18.0 19.3 20.9 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.4 98.7 98.9 99.1 99.5 100.3 101.3 102.2 103.3 104.3 105.3 105.6 104.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 11 15 24 29 31 HEAT CONTENT 14 20 22 22 22 26 36 40 31 22 16 20 9 9 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 27. 31. 34. 38. 40. 43. 46. 47. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 0. -4. -11. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 6. 10. 11. 15. 12. 5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 29. 34. 40. 37. 29. 20. 21. 20. 15. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 98.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 10/18/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.82 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.72 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 35.0% 22.9% 0.0% 0.0% 27.0% 48.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 10.9% 5.3% 3.1% 1.2% 18.3% 57.7% 21.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% Consensus: 0.5% 15.9% 9.9% 1.1% 0.4% 15.1% 35.4% 7.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 10/18/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##