* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 10/18/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 32 36 38 48 56 65 75 79 80 82 77 73 60 42 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 32 36 38 48 56 65 75 79 80 82 77 73 41 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 42 46 50 54 58 59 55 35 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 1 1 2 5 6 8 6 1 12 10 15 15 37 60 89 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 1 -6 -1 -2 -1 -5 -7 -5 -4 5 17 9 -1 SHEAR DIR 33 74 111 153 227 183 229 256 263 229 174 175 179 222 226 245 218 SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.8 30.3 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.3 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.8 29.4 27.7 27.8 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 161 166 169 169 170 167 161 158 156 154 153 160 146 150 124 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -51.3 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 5 5 7 6 6 4 5 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 85 84 84 86 86 82 78 71 67 62 60 55 52 53 55 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 9 10 9 13 15 18 21 24 25 27 26 22 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 22 20 31 29 22 3 0 8 19 48 42 47 35 63 79 52 200 MB DIV 85 89 111 134 123 109 130 119 90 62 47 88 66 76 50 73 89 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -4 -3 -5 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 -3 -13 37 -2 LAND (KM) 423 354 296 249 216 186 189 187 179 137 113 130 206 30 -345 -519 -784 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.4 17.3 18.3 19.7 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.8 98.2 98.6 98.8 99.0 99.7 100.7 101.8 103.0 104.1 105.2 106.7 107.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 6 5 5 4 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 14 24 36 36 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 17 22 25 28 32 42 36 28 22 18 24 21 2 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 12. 20. 27. 31. 35. 38. 41. 44. 46. 48. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 3. -8. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 5. 8. 13. 20. 24. 25. 27. 22. 17. 7. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 11. 13. 23. 31. 40. 50. 54. 55. 57. 52. 48. 35. 17. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 97.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 10/18/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.94 7.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 10.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 38.1% 26.9% 0.0% 0.0% 37.7% 56.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 27.7% 16.5% 10.9% 1.5% 41.7% 70.2% 30.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.4% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 3.8% Consensus: 0.9% 23.4% 15.5% 3.9% 0.5% 26.6% 42.2% 11.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 10/18/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##