* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 10/18/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 39 45 54 64 73 79 81 82 81 77 71 49 34 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 39 45 54 64 73 79 81 82 81 77 49 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 42 46 50 54 58 61 60 41 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 3 2 1 3 5 8 7 7 7 12 14 14 24 57 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -5 0 -6 -5 -7 -4 0 11 8 8 SHEAR DIR 68 34 60 78 119 211 223 260 259 278 162 177 168 210 219 243 227 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.6 30.1 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.0 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.9 27.7 28.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 154 159 164 169 169 170 164 160 157 156 155 165 144 155 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.9 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.1 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 3 4 3 6 4 8 5 7 3 5 3 0 700-500 MB RH 84 84 84 83 85 85 80 76 69 65 62 58 54 53 58 56 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 9 10 11 13 17 19 23 25 26 26 24 20 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 21 18 29 25 11 9 8 17 42 44 51 43 41 109 68 200 MB DIV 74 84 86 108 133 114 122 130 118 68 57 69 79 56 107 52 131 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -6 -5 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -15 11 -8 LAND (KM) 502 445 387 327 266 214 185 182 183 143 115 88 142 98 -179 -593 -653 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.8 19.0 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.3 97.8 98.2 98.5 98.7 99.2 99.9 101.0 102.2 103.3 104.4 105.7 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 7 6 7 7 10 11 12 19 33 39 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 16 20 26 28 35 41 30 23 19 27 25 3 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 5. 12. 19. 27. 31. 35. 38. 41. 44. 47. 49. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. -4. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 12. 17. 22. 24. 24. 21. 18. 12. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 20. 29. 39. 48. 54. 56. 57. 56. 52. 46. 24. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 97.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 10/18/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.87 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 54% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.2% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0% 32.3% 53.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 26.4% 13.5% 8.7% 1.7% 39.5% 64.9% 31.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 4.1% Consensus: 0.7% 20.2% 12.6% 3.1% 0.6% 24.1% 39.7% 11.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 10/18/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##