* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 08/13/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 34 36 36 34 31 27 23 20 19 18 17 16 16 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 34 36 36 34 31 27 23 20 19 18 17 16 16 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 34 32 29 26 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 15 16 17 18 21 23 22 22 25 23 26 25 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 -5 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -5 -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 79 77 75 62 66 83 99 117 125 135 130 136 133 136 133 135 138 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.4 25.6 24.8 25.4 24.7 25.0 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 142 141 139 138 135 132 128 126 118 110 116 109 113 119 119 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 70 67 65 66 60 61 56 54 48 45 41 38 35 33 29 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 18 21 17 16 24 40 30 40 40 34 25 12 6 10 7 25 200 MB DIV 26 29 39 31 1 3 4 -4 -24 0 -11 -10 -14 -10 -33 -20 -16 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 563 524 507 505 522 591 665 734 811 899 1016 1135 1238 1381 1559 1761 1957 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.1 111.9 112.5 113.1 114.3 115.3 116.4 117.6 118.9 120.5 122.1 123.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 8 8 8 10 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 23. 22. 21. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.8 110.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 08/13/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.36 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.89 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 12.0% 11.6% 10.7% 0.0% 10.3% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.6% 4.2% 3.7% 0.1% 3.6% 3.5% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 08/13/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##