* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 08/13/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 35 33 29 26 28 30 32 34 35 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 35 33 29 26 28 30 32 34 35 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 24 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 14 12 11 11 13 15 19 23 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 60 80 71 76 72 68 102 129 128 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.7 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 145 143 141 133 132 128 128 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 75 71 68 67 60 62 56 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 34 29 18 22 22 20 40 30 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 40 24 24 29 0 2 4 1 -12 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -1 0 0 -2 0 1 2 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 480 515 535 523 530 586 670 724 770 849 922 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 8 7 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 14 13 10 8 10 7 4 2 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -8. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 8. 4. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.8 108.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 08/13/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.46 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.87 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.8% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 1.1% 2.0% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.6% 4.6% 0.2% 0.1% 4.1% 4.3% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 08/13/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##