* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 08/12/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 31 35 35 36 35 33 32 32 34 36 38 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 31 35 35 36 35 33 32 32 34 36 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 25 24 23 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 13 14 15 14 20 20 22 28 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -6 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 86 58 70 71 78 70 79 106 115 122 113 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 149 150 145 143 139 133 132 133 134 133 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 73 72 68 65 63 63 57 55 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 23 29 23 16 20 9 21 30 30 38 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 49 38 31 29 22 -6 -2 15 -11 7 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 480 508 552 617 601 623 662 729 729 768 845 893 909 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 10 8 7 5 2 1 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 11 11 8 8 9 7 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 107.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 08/12/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.46 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.7% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 1.3% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.6% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 3.8% 3.8% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 08/12/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##