* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 08/11/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 37 46 54 61 67 69 70 71 67 64 59 54 50 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 37 46 54 61 67 69 70 71 67 64 59 54 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 49 52 53 52 51 48 42 36 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 10 11 12 7 11 11 11 15 18 11 14 13 11 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 -3 3 4 4 -6 -6 -2 0 4 4 3 4 SHEAR DIR 44 48 59 72 73 78 30 59 68 76 79 105 113 131 156 143 153 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.2 27.8 27.1 25.9 25.5 24.4 23.9 23.4 22.9 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 149 150 150 154 147 142 134 122 117 106 101 96 91 94 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 80 78 77 76 76 76 74 69 65 63 60 54 50 44 39 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 11 13 14 15 16 18 20 20 20 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR -6 0 6 7 14 21 21 13 20 16 24 37 41 56 62 52 56 200 MB DIV 67 62 57 52 56 59 53 31 43 25 10 9 -17 -9 -4 -10 -14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -4 1 -7 -4 -1 -2 -2 0 2 2 2 2 3 LAND (KM) 617 620 621 634 661 672 727 730 686 715 745 816 926 1030 1123 1237 1366 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 14.4 15.4 16.7 18.0 18.9 19.7 20.2 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.6 105.4 106.2 107.0 108.6 110.4 112.3 114.0 115.4 117.0 118.5 120.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 9 11 11 9 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 13 12 13 14 14 8 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 31. 30. 29. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 13. 11. 9. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 21. 29. 36. 42. 44. 45. 46. 42. 39. 34. 29. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 103.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 08/11/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.57 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.0% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 15.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 11.5% 5.1% 2.7% 1.0% 11.6% 25.2% 26.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% Consensus: 0.7% 11.6% 7.7% 1.0% 0.4% 9.4% 13.6% 9.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 08/11/22 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING