* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 08/11/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 42 54 64 71 76 80 80 78 75 71 65 62 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 42 54 64 71 76 80 80 78 75 71 65 62 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 28 33 39 42 45 48 50 51 48 43 38 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 8 8 7 11 8 11 11 16 11 14 12 15 12 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 1 0 6 0 -6 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 118 61 57 67 66 66 86 48 70 77 85 87 90 89 108 114 134 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.3 26.6 25.8 25.1 24.7 24.4 24.4 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 149 150 150 154 150 143 136 129 120 112 108 106 106 93 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 77 76 76 75 77 72 70 65 63 54 54 48 44 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 12 12 12 15 16 16 19 21 23 23 23 23 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 5 13 16 22 19 20 19 23 21 32 45 59 71 70 62 200 MB DIV 72 73 68 60 60 57 77 34 62 42 27 24 6 -26 -3 -5 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 -2 -11 -6 -2 -5 -2 0 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 566 583 578 597 611 656 707 771 744 775 824 869 947 1033 1110 1168 1241 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.6 14.2 15.1 16.2 17.3 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.8 104.6 105.5 106.3 108.0 109.9 111.9 113.9 115.5 117.0 118.3 119.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 10 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 6 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 14 13 13 13 15 11 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 35. 36. 35. 35. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 9. 12. 16. 17. 16. 14. 13. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 34. 44. 51. 56. 60. 60. 58. 55. 51. 45. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 102.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 08/11/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 40.5% 24.5% 15.8% 5.6% 36.7% 61.8% 53.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 1.0% Consensus: 2.1% 14.2% 8.4% 5.3% 1.9% 12.3% 20.7% 18.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 08/11/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##