* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 08/10/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 29 36 46 55 62 65 69 69 71 70 70 68 67 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 29 36 46 55 62 65 69 69 71 70 70 68 67 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 31 34 35 35 37 39 40 40 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 3 8 9 12 11 11 16 16 17 19 19 18 17 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 6 5 2 -5 -5 -5 -4 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 25 91 36 41 44 59 62 44 59 65 71 79 94 81 74 67 71 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 148 147 150 150 153 150 143 140 137 138 138 137 132 118 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 81 78 77 78 76 75 75 77 76 72 69 67 68 64 62 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 10 9 10 11 12 11 13 12 14 13 14 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -4 -1 6 7 8 11 6 5 9 4 8 24 31 43 50 45 200 MB DIV 60 69 58 51 45 62 53 41 54 70 40 23 48 28 25 18 -6 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 -7 -5 -3 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 581 615 642 637 641 670 699 754 806 771 770 802 852 905 952 959 945 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.4 14.1 14.9 15.9 16.7 17.2 17.5 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.0 103.0 104.0 104.8 105.6 107.0 108.6 110.3 112.0 113.3 114.2 115.1 115.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 10 9 6 5 3 3 3 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 16 15 12 12 15 15 11 8 7 7 8 8 7 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 36. 38. 39. 41. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 2. 5. 3. 6. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 9. 16. 26. 35. 42. 45. 49. 49. 51. 50. 50. 48. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 102.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 08/10/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.7% 45.0% 29.3% 17.4% 4.0% 33.2% 51.0% 53.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 7.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 1.6% 2.4% 1.2% Consensus: 3.7% 17.7% 10.4% 6.0% 1.4% 11.6% 17.8% 18.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 08/10/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##