* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 01/21/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 30 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 30 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 36 33 29 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 26 51 68 79 77 64 44 66 67 63 53 53 57 71 72 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -13 -20 -34 -29 -20 -7 -20 -11 -10 1 2 2 -14 -24 -18 SHEAR DIR 225 339 359 341 333 324 318 320 324 337 318 304 294 285 277 264 248 SST (C) 22.9 22.6 22.1 21.7 21.8 22.4 22.8 22.6 22.4 23.0 23.2 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.2 23.2 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 91 88 82 78 79 83 86 85 84 91 94 106 109 111 106 95 76 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.8 -56.8 -56.4 -55.8 -54.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -50.7 -49.3 -49.9 -50.2 -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 49 47 43 37 38 43 48 52 51 48 46 46 51 58 59 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 16 14 13 11 11 15 14 11 9 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 80 68 45 40 28 46 55 68 82 113 110 91 77 65 52 21 200 MB DIV -38 -84 -108 -92 -47 -44 -47 0 -7 -54 -66 -48 -15 27 28 8 24 700-850 TADV 10 4 -3 0 -5 -4 -7 -9 -11 -13 -10 -3 -2 -2 12 18 18 LAND (KM) 1787 1706 1621 1512 1424 1328 1329 1334 1237 1113 1046 1154 1402 1675 1894 2070 1932 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.3 23.5 23.5 23.2 22.1 21.6 21.9 22.1 21.5 19.6 17.7 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.9 138.8 139.7 140.8 141.6 142.3 142.2 142.2 143.2 144.3 144.8 144.0 141.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 7 5 1 3 6 8 11 10 12 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -2. -8. -20. -33. -50. -67. -79. -83. -85. -86. -90. -99.-104. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 11. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 26. 25. 20. 14. 7. 3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -6. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -5. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -13. -18. -30. -40. -58. -80.-102.-116.-125.-134.-140.-151.-154. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.8 137.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 01/21/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -73.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9999.0 800.8 to -82.5 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 01/21/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##