* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 01/20/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 36 33 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 36 33 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 37 34 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 24 11 20 44 74 72 65 41 70 72 52 49 46 52 60 76 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 -3 -9 -30 -23 -19 -7 -22 0 10 17 19 18 16 3 SHEAR DIR 225 214 214 351 358 332 321 314 315 338 338 300 285 288 281 275 271 SST (C) 22.3 22.5 22.7 22.3 21.9 21.6 21.9 22.0 21.9 22.7 23.7 25.3 25.8 26.2 26.5 26.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 85 87 89 85 81 76 78 77 79 90 103 119 123 126 128 133 128 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.8 -57.2 -57.1 -56.8 -55.7 -54.7 -53.6 -53.4 -51.9 -50.0 -50.6 -51.8 -52.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.2 2.1 1.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 49 44 40 47 49 52 44 30 19 17 24 27 31 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 17 15 12 10 10 14 13 9 6 5 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 92 84 76 65 39 32 63 78 72 57 69 46 5 -12 -38 -40 200 MB DIV 42 33 -2 -59 -113 -50 -63 -51 -37 -101 -122 -99 -64 -48 -11 11 17 700-850 TADV 14 13 13 3 -3 -6 -4 -4 -4 -14 -12 -16 -2 -2 -3 0 1 LAND (KM) 1959 1883 1823 1743 1651 1452 1339 1311 1267 1068 722 543 718 947 1153 1359 1607 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.4 23.1 23.6 23.9 23.8 23.0 22.7 22.9 22.8 20.8 17.3 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.1 136.9 137.6 138.5 139.5 141.5 142.4 142.6 143.1 145.1 148.0 150.2 150.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 7 4 1 6 13 20 18 14 10 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. -3. -13. -27. -42. -57. -71. -76. -77. -77. -78. -82. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 21. 26. 26. 21. 15. 8. 4. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -7. -8. -13. -17. -17. -17. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -6. -2. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -25. -39. -49. -64. -88.-105.-114.-122.-124.-129.-130. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.8 136.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 01/20/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9999.0 800.8 to -82.5 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 01/20/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##