* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP192022 10/23/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 98 92 83 63 56 52 48 43 40 36 32 27 22 18 15 V (KT) LAND 110 92 67 50 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 110 104 69 50 39 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 19 27 38 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 5 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 234 243 245 246 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 27.7 27.6 27.6 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 144 143 142 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 53 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 9 3 11 25 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 58 51 49 65 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -6 2 14 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 74 -8 -136 -327 -496 -338 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.9 23.3 24.8 26.2 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.4 105.6 104.7 103.6 102.4 100.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 17 18 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 20 9 8 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -23. -29. -34. -38. -40. -40. -40. -41. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -15. -26. -26. -24. -25. -26. -29. -33. -36. -41. -44. -43. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -27. -47. -54. -58. -62. -67. -70. -74. -78. -83. -88. -92. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 20.5 106.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192022 ROSLYN 10/23/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 506.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192022 ROSLYN 10/23/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##