* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP192022 10/22/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 85 87 86 76 68 58 52 47 44 43 43 41 40 38 36 V (KT) LAND 75 81 85 87 86 76 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 82 85 86 84 75 43 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 15 16 18 26 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -3 -4 -1 -1 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 203 209 213 220 229 238 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.6 29.3 27.7 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 150 150 159 144 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 7 4 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 59 59 54 55 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -5 -6 -6 12 24 19 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 52 48 55 63 80 74 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -10 13 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 276 256 227 169 127 42 -246 -418 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.4 19.2 21.3 24.1 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.3 105.7 106.1 106.2 106.3 105.7 104.0 101.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 10 13 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 23 20 15 14 22 9 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -20. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 12. 11. 1. -7. -17. -23. -28. -31. -32. -32. -34. -35. -37. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.6 105.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192022 ROSLYN 10/22/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.34 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 7.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.46 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 45.8% 40.1% 29.7% 24.0% 15.8% 19.2% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 50.7% 40.1% 30.8% 27.0% 35.5% 10.8% 1.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 25.8% 20.3% 7.5% 5.4% 3.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 40.7% 33.5% 22.7% 18.8% 18.2% 10.1% 4.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 48.0% 44.0% 34.0% 21.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192022 ROSLYN 10/22/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##